Ryan Chen

Engineer. Musician.

Ryan Chen - Engineer & Musician.

first round upsets in (NBA) 5 & 7 game series

I wrote a guest post on the basketball analytics blog Nylon Calculus about whether or not the NBA's 1984 change of playoff first round format from best-of-5 to best-of-7 has changed the rate of upsets.  According to conventional knowledge, this shift should reduce the rate of upsets because, as the number of games in the series increases, the truly better team should win more frequently.  My analysis shows that this conventional knowledge is actually not statistically justified.

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